Poker Hand Matchup Odds
Last updated: April 30, 2026
Head-to-head win percentages for the most common Texas Hold'em matchups. These figures are calculated using full card enumeration across all possible board runouts. Use them as a reference during study — or enter any hand into RiverOdds for exact real-time equity.
Premium Pair vs Premium Pair
When big pairs collide, the higher pair is typically an 80% favourite — a 4:1 edge. This is why being the player with AA in a preflop all-in is so profitable long-term.
Preflop equity (all-in before any community cards)
Pair vs Two Unpaired Cards
These matchups range from domination (AA vs 72o) to near coin-flips (JJ vs AK). Understanding these edges is essential for preflop decision-making and push/fold situations.
Preflop all-in equity
Made Hand vs Drawing Hand (Post-Flop)
Post-flop matchups introduce draws into the equation. An overpair is typically a 65% favourite over a flush draw — but combo draws can flip the equation, especially when the draw has 12–15 outs.
Equity on the flop (two cards to come)
Strong Made Hand vs Strong Made Hand
When two players both flop strong hands, equity is more skewed. A flopped set is a dominant favourite over two pair, and a made straight crushes a flush draw.
Equity on the flop
Definitions
How to Use These Numbers
Hand matchup odds are preflop or flop-level averages. They assume all remaining board cards run out — no fold equity, no future action. In practice, equity translates to profitability only when combined with pot odds and implied odds.
Preflop all-in decisions
Use these as a direct reference. If you have 80% equity preflop, you should want to get all the money in — the expected value is highly positive.
Post-flop calling decisions
Compare your equity (e.g., 35% with a flush draw) to the pot odds required to call. If pot odds are 25% and equity is 35%, calling is profitable. See the Pot Odds guide for details.
Semi-bluffing
When you have a draw (like a flush draw with 35% equity), you can profitably semi-bluff — betting or raising with both fold equity and hand equity working in your favour.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of AA vs KK?
Pocket Aces (AA) versus Pocket Kings (KK) preflop gives AA approximately an 82% chance of winning. KK wins roughly 18% of the time, primarily by hitting a king on the board. This is one of the most discussed matchups in poker because both hands are premium, yet the outcome is heavily skewed.
What are the odds of an overpair vs a flush draw?
An overpair (e.g., JJ on a Q♥7♥2♣ board with a flush draw in play) is approximately a 65% favourite over a flush draw. The flush draw has about 35% equity — 9 outs, each giving approximately 19.6% on the turn. This is why semi-bluffing with flush draws can be profitable: you often have significant equity even when called.
Is QQ vs AK a coin flip?
No — QQ is actually a 57% favourite over AK off-suit. It feels like a coin flip because both hands are strong, but QQ already has a pair. AK has two live overcards (6 outs to hit a pair higher than queens) but must improve to win. Suited AK (AKs) performs slightly better at about 46% due to flush equity.
What happens when two players have the same pair?
If both players hold the same pair (e.g., both have pocket nines), the outcome is determined by their kickers — the other hole card. If both have identical hands, the pot is split (a tie). The probability of a tie increases significantly in same-pair vs same-pair matchups.
Can a combo draw be a favourite over a made hand?
Yes. A combo draw — a flush draw plus an open-ended straight draw — has up to 15 outs, giving approximately 54% equity from the flop. This means a combo draw can be a slight favourite even over a strong made hand like a set or two pair. Semi-bluffing or even betting for value with a combo draw is often correct.
How are these percentages calculated?
Matchup odds are calculated using full equity simulation across all possible remaining card combinations (full enumeration or Monte Carlo simulation). The percentages represent long-run average win rates — in any individual hand, the outcome is determined by which cards fall on the board.
Recommended Reading
The Mathematics of Poker — Bill Chen & Jerrod Ankenman
The definitive quantitative treatment of poker — game theory, equity, and EV from first principles.
Modern Poker Theory — Michael Acevedo
GTO principles made practical — ranges, frequencies, and solver-backed strategy in one volume.
The Theory of Poker — David Sklansky
The classic foundation every serious player starts with — the Fundamental Theorem of Poker.
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Related Guides
All Hand Matchups (110 pages)
Exact preflop equity for every common Texas Hold'em head-to-head. Tap any matchup for the full breakdown.
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