Texas Hold'em Probability Chart

Q: What is the probability of being dealt pocket aces in Texas Hold'em?

The probability of being dealt pocket aces (AA) in Texas Hold'em is 0.45%, or approximately 1 in 221 hands. There are 6 combinations of aces (A♠A♥, A♠A♦, A♠A♣, A♥A♦, A♥A♣, A♦A♣) out of 1,326 possible starting hand combinations (52 choose 2).

Q: What are the odds of flopping a set when holding a pocket pair?

When you hold a pocket pair, the probability of flopping a set (three of a kind using one of your hole cards) is approximately 11.8% — about 1 in 8.5 flops. This includes both sets (2 hole cards with 1 board card matching) and full houses (flopping full house directly). Note: flopping trips using both your hole cards as pair plus board card is a different scenario.

Q: How likely is it to make a flush by the river with a flush draw on the flop?

With a flush draw on the flop (9 outs), the probability of completing the flush by the river is approximately 35%. Using the Rule of 4: 9 outs × 4 ≈ 36%. The slight difference is because the Rule of 4 slightly overestimates for higher out counts.

Q: What is the probability of winning with pocket aces preflop against a random hand?

Pocket aces win approximately 85% of the time against a single random hand preflop. This varies slightly based on the opponent's specific cards — AA performs best against hands like 72o (~88%) and slightly worse against suited connectors like 87s (~77%) because of the potential for straights and flushes.

Last updated: April 30, 2026

The complete reference for Texas Hold'em probabilities — from preflop hand frequencies to draw completion rates. Knowing these numbers changes how you think about every decision at the table.

Preflop Hand Probabilities

Based on 1,326 possible starting hand combinations (52 × 51 / 2).

Starting Hand	Probability	Frequency
Any pocket pair (e.g., AA, 22)	5.88%	1 in 17
Specific pocket pair (e.g., exactly AA)	0.45%	1 in 221
Premium pair (AA, KK, QQ, JJ)	1.81%	1 in 55
Suited Ace (AKs–A2s)	3.02%	1 in 33
Any two suited cards	23.5%	1 in 4.3
Any two connected cards (e.g., T9)	15.7%	1 in 6.4
Suited connectors (e.g., 9♥8♥)	3.92%	1 in 26
Ace-King (AKs or AKo)	1.21%	1 in 83
Any two cards above 9 (both Broadway)	14.3%	1 in 7

Flopping Key Hands

Probabilities of various outcomes on the flop, given a specific hole card type.

Scenario	Probability	Frequency
Flopping a set (holding a pocket pair)	11.8%	1 in 8.5
Flopping at least one pair (with two unpaired hole cards)	32.4%	1 in 3.1
Flopping two pair (with unpaired hole cards)	2.02%	1 in 50
Flopping a flush (holding two suited cards)	0.84%	1 in 119
Flopping a flush draw (9 outs)	10.9%	1 in 9.2
Flopping an open-ended straight draw	~9%	varies
Flopping trips (using one hole card + board pair)	1.35%	1 in 74
Flopping a full house (holding a pocket pair)	0.98%	1 in 102

Draw Completion Probabilities

Exact and Rule-of-4&2 estimates for common draws.

Draw Type	Flop → River	Turn → River	Rule of 4 & 2
Flush draw (9 outs)	35%	19.6%	9×4=36% / 9×2=18%
Open-ended straight (8 outs)	31.5%	17.4%	8×4=32% / 8×2=16%
Flush + gutshot combo (12 outs)	45%	26.1%	12×4=48% / 12×2=24%
Flush + open-ended (15 outs)	54.1%	32.6%	15×4=60% / 15×2=30%
Gutshot straight (4 outs)	16.5%	8.7%	4×4=16% / 4×2=8%
Two overcards (6 outs)	24.1%	13.0%	6×4=24% / 6×2=12%
Set to full house/quads (on paired board)	33%	21.7%	varies

Common Hand Matchup Probabilities

These are practical preflop and flop equity benchmarks. For exact suits, blockers, board cards, and multiway hands, run the spot in the calculator.

Matchup	Favorite	Equity	Note
AA vs random hand	AA	85%	Best broad estimate for pocket aces heads-up preflop
AA vs KK	AA	82%	Classic premium pair domination spot
KK vs AK suited	KK	70%	AK keeps live ace outs and suited equity
QQ vs AK offsuit	QQ	57%	Often called a flip, but the pair is ahead
22 vs AK offsuit	22	53%	Small pair versus two overcards is close to even
Top pair vs flush draw on flop	Top pair	63%-65%	Draw has about 35% by the river

Showdown Winning Hand Frequencies

Approximate distribution of winning hands in heads-up Texas Hold'em showdowns.

Winning Hand at Showdown	Approximate %
Hands won at showdown by high card	~17%
Hands won at showdown by one pair	~44%
Hands won at showdown by two pair	~24%
Hands won at showdown by three of a kind	~5%
Hands won at showdown by straight	~5%
Hands won at showdown by flush	~3%
Hands won at showdown by full house	~3%
Hands won at showdown by quads or better	<0.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the probability of being dealt pocket aces in Texas Hold'em?

The probability of being dealt pocket aces (AA) in Texas Hold'em is 0.45%, or approximately 1 in 221 hands. There are 6 combinations of aces (A♠A♥, A♠A♦, A♠A♣, A♥A♦, A♥A♣, A♦A♣) out of 1,326 possible starting hand combinations (52 choose 2).

What are the odds of flopping a set when holding a pocket pair?

When you hold a pocket pair, the probability of flopping a set (three of a kind using one of your hole cards) is approximately 11.8% — about 1 in 8.5 flops. This includes both sets (2 hole cards with 1 board card matching) and full houses (flopping full house directly). Note: flopping trips using both your hole cards as pair plus board card is a different scenario.

How likely is it to make a flush by the river with a flush draw on the flop?

With a flush draw on the flop (9 outs), the probability of completing the flush by the river is approximately 35%. Using the Rule of 4: 9 outs × 4 ≈ 36%. The slight difference is because the Rule of 4 slightly overestimates for higher out counts.

What is the probability of winning with pocket aces preflop against a random hand?

Pocket aces win approximately 85% of the time against a single random hand preflop. This varies slightly based on the opponent's specific cards — AA performs best against hands like 72o (~88%) and slightly worse against suited connectors like 87s (~77%) because of the potential for straights and flushes.

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