AK vs JJ Odds: The Real Coin Flip Matchup

Last updated: May 15, 2026

AKo vs JJ runs at 45.6% / 53.9% — and AKs vs JJ at 48.4% / 51.1%. Of all premium-hand matchups, AKs vs JJ is the closest to a real coin flip — JJ wins just 11 times for every 10 AKs wins. The hand has two clean overcards (3 aces + 3 kings = 6 outs) against JJ's existing pair and 2 set outs.

The Numbers

Two equity figures matter. AKo vs JJ runs at 45.55% / 53.91% / 0.54%. AKs vs JJ runs at 48.43% / 51.06% / 0.51%. The suited variant gains 2.9% from flush equity.

AKo vs JJ

45.6% / 53.9%

JJ favourite — close race

AKs vs JJ

48.4% / 51.1%

Closest premium matchup

Suit-by-Suit Equity Breakdown

Suit choice swings the matchup by about 0.4 percentage points. The bigger driver is suited-vs-offsuit AK — worth 2.9% of equity.

Preflop equity by suit combination

Scenario	AK Wins	JJ Wins	Tie	Detail
A♠K♠ vs J♥J♦	48.6%	50.9%	0.5%	Suited AK with no J-suit overlap — full flush equity
A♠K♠ vs J♠J♥	48.2%	51.3%	0.5%	AKs shares spades with JJ — minor flush block
A♠K♥ vs J♣J♦	45.6%	53.9%	0.5%	Pure offsuit AK vs JJ
A♥K♦ vs J♠J♣	45.6%	53.9%	0.5%	Offsuit AK, JJ blocks neither suit

Post-Flop: How the Equity Moves

Equity given specific flops and runouts

Scenario	AK Wins	JJ Wins	Tie	Detail
AK (no A/K/J on flop) vs JJ (overpair)	26.1%	73.9%	0%	Brick flop like 8-5-2 — AK has 6 outs twice (~25%)
AK (A on flop) vs JJ	91.5%	8.5%	0%	Top pair top kicker — JJ has 2 outs to a set
AK (J on flop) vs JJ (set)	8.4%	91.6%	0%	Worst case for AK — JJ flops a set
AK on Q-T-x vs JJ (overpair + gutshot)	33.5%	66.5%	0%	AK has gutshot + 6 overcard outs; JJ blocks J-high straight
AK on K-J-x vs JJ (set vs TP)	9.8%	90.2%	0%	Top pair top kicker but JJ has flopped a set

AK Equity vs Every Pocket Pair (Reference)

Pocket Pair	AKo Equity	AKs Equity	AK Wins ÷ Pair Wins
AA	12.6%	12.3%	0.14×
KK	30.0%	34.1%	0.43×
QQ	43.3%	46.1%	0.77×
JJ	45.6%	48.4%	0.85×
TT	45.7%	48.5%	0.85×
99	46.5%	49.4%	0.87×
88	46.7%	49.5%	0.88×
77	46.8%	49.6%	0.88×
22-66	~47%	~50%	0.89×

Why Is JJ the Favourite?

JJ holds a made pair. AK must improve. The 6 overcard outs translate to ~41% raw equity over five community cards — and JJ's 2 set outs add about 8% additional wins for JJ even when AK pairs up. Net result: JJ wins 54% of the time at showdown.

AK's equity sources (offsuit)

Hit an ace by the river23.8%
Hit a king by the river (no ace)18.5%
Runner-runner straight (e.g., Q-T or T-Q)1.8%
Two pair / better unique to AK1.5%
Total AKo equity45.6%

Definitions

Race

Tournament slang for a coin-flip-like all-in between two premium hands. AK vs JJ, AK vs TT, and AK vs 22 are all called races even though the actual equity ranges from 45-49% for AK.

Overcards

Hole cards higher in rank than every card on the board. AK is overcards on a 9-5-2 flop — 6 outs to top pair.

Live Cards

Cards that improve a hand to a winning hand. AK has 6 live cards (3 aces + 3 kings) against JJ. The cards are 'live' because hitting them produces top pair, beating JJ's underpair.

Open-Ended Race

Live-poker phrase for pocket-pair vs two-overcards. The race is open-ended because both sides have realistic ways to win — the pair holds, or the overcards hit.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AK vs JJ a coin flip?

Close, but not exact. AKo vs JJ is 45.6% / 53.9% — JJ is an 8.3-percentage-point favourite. AKs vs JJ is 48.4% / 51.1%, the closest premium-hand matchup to a true coin flip. The term 'coin flip' fits AKs vs JJ better than AKs vs QQ (where the gap widens to 7.3 points).

What are the exact odds of AK vs JJ?

AKo (offsuit) vs JJ: JJ wins 53.91%, AKo wins 45.55%, ties 0.54%. AKs (suited) vs JJ: JJ wins 51.06%, AKs wins 48.43%, ties 0.51%. The suited variant gains 2.9% from flush equity. These come from full enumeration of all 5-card board runouts.

How many outs does AK have against JJ?

AK has 6 clean outs preflop — 3 remaining aces and 3 remaining kings. JJ has 2 outs to make a set (the two remaining jacks). The 6-to-2 out ratio combined with JJ's existing pair produces the 54/46 equity split.

Why is AK vs JJ closer than AK vs QQ?

Against JJ, AK can win by hitting either an ace OR a king as top pair. Against QQ, only an ace makes top pair — a king on the board still leaves QQ as the overpair to AK's middle pair. This subtle change is worth about 2 percentage points in AK's favour, moving AKs from 46% vs QQ to 48% vs JJ.

Should I call all-in with AK vs JJ?

In a pure AK vs JJ spot, AKs has 48.4% equity — combined with dead money from blinds and antes, this is almost always a call. AKo at 45.6% still has positive expected value because the opponent's 4-bet shove range typically contains worse hands (TT-22, AQ, KQ as bluffs). Folding AK to a JJ-only range is incorrect; in reality the range is always wider.

Is AKs vs JJ a real coin flip?

At 48.4% / 51.1%, AKs vs JJ is the closest premium hand matchup to a true 50/50. JJ wins approximately 11 times for every 10 AKs wins — a small but measurable edge. Over 1,000 hands, the expected difference is about 27 hands. In live play, this is functionally a coin flip; in long-term study, JJ is correctly classified as the favourite.

How does AK vs JJ compare to AK vs TT?

Nearly identical. AKo vs TT is 45.7% / 53.7%; AKs vs TT is 48.5% / 50.9%. Below QQ, AK's equity against every pocket pair sits in a tight 45-49% range. The pair only loses more equity when the AK can also make a straight using the pair's rank (rare).

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