Poker EV Calculator

What is EV in poker?

EV (Expected Value) is the average outcome of a poker decision across all possible results, weighted by their probabilities. A +EV decision wins money long-term; a -EV decision loses money long-term. Individual hand results don't determine if a decision was +EV — only the math of probabilities and outcomes does. Top players make decisions based on EV, not on what happened in a single hand.

How do you calculate EV in poker?

Basic formula: EV = Σ(probability × outcome). For an all-in: EV = (equity × pot you win) − ((1−equity) × amount you lose). Example: $100 pot, 60% equity all-in for $50: EV = (0.6 × 150) − (0.4 × 50) = 90 − 20 = +$70. Always positive when equity exceeds the required pot odds.

What is bluff EV?

Bluff EV = (Fold% × Current Pot) − (Call% × Bet Amount). Example: $100 pot, bet $50, opponent folds 60%: EV = (0.6 × 100) − (0.4 × 50) = 60 − 20 = +$40. The bluff is +EV when fold% > bet/(pot+bet) — for half-pot, 33% folds breaks even.

What's the difference between EV and equity?

Equity is your share of the pot based on win probability (e.g., 60%). EV is the dollar value of a decision — combines equity with pot odds and bet size. A high-equity hand can be -EV if you have to call a huge bet; a low-equity hand can be +EV if you can win uncalled with fold equity (semi-bluff). EV is the decision metric; equity is one input to it.

Can a hand be -EV but profitable in tournaments?

Yes — when bounty value (PKO tournaments) or ICM dollar equity outweighs chip EV. Conversely, a +chipEV decision can be -dollarEV due to ICM pressure on the bubble. Tournament pros use ICM-aware tools (HRC) to compute true dollar EV. Cash games: chip EV = dollar EV directly (chips = dollars 1:1).

How accurate are EV calculations?

EV calculations are mathematically exact given accurate inputs. The challenge is estimating opponent ranges and fold frequencies — these are inputs to EV that have uncertainty. Solver-derived EV is highly accurate at equilibrium; exploitative EV depends on your opponent reads. Use EV calculations as guides, not absolute truths.