TT vs AK Odds: Pocket Tens vs Ace-King Pre-flop Equity
Last updated: May 19, 2026
TT wins 56.7% vs AKo preflop — not a true coin flip. Pocket tens hold a consistent edge over ace-king, but the matchup stays close: AKs closes the gap to 54.6% / 45.4% through flush equity. The critical variable is the flop texture — an ace or king arriving on the board (which happens on roughly 45% of runouts) immediately flips TT to a significant underdog.
TT vs AK Preflop Equity
Two numbers define this matchup. Against offsuit AK, TT is a 1.3:1 favorite at 56.7%. Against suited AK, the gap narrows to a 1.2:1 edge at 54.6% — the ~2% difference comes entirely from AK's flush draw potential.
TT vs AKo
56.7% / 43.3%
TT is a 1.3:1 favorite
TT vs AKs
54.6% / 45.4%
TT is a 1.2:1 favorite
Preflop equity by suit combination
Board-by-Board Analysis
Preflop equity is an average across all possible runouts. Post-flop, the matchup bifurcates sharply: blank boards are dominated by TT, while any board containing an ace or king swings heavily to AK. The table below shows equity after specific flop textures.
TT vs AKo equity given specific flop textures
The single most important takeaway: TT is roughly an 80% favorite on blank flops but only ~25% on ace-high or king-high flops. Because A/K flops arrive on roughly 45% of all runouts, TT's pre-flop 56.7% edge is consistently eroded by post-flop variance.
TT Implied Odds: When Is TT a Set Mine vs AK?
TT flops a set roughly 12% of the time (about 1 in 8 flops). When it does, TT holds ~95% equity against AK and will typically stack the opponent who has top pair. This makes TT a powerful implied-odds hand even in spots where playing for full stacks preflop is marginal.
Set-mining math at 100 BB effective
- TT flops a set (any ten)~11.8%
- Equity vs AKo when set flops~95%
- Required implied odds to set mine~7.5:1
- Preflop equity without a set~50% (on non-A/K boards)
At 100 BB, TT does not need to play as a pure set-mine — its 56.7% preflop equity against AK justifies playing for stacks directly. At 200 BB+, the set-mine dynamic becomes more important: calling a 3-bet with TT at deep stacks to exploit implied odds when a ten flops is a legitimate and profitable strategy.
Strategy: How to Play TT Facing a 3-Bet
When facing a 3-bet that contains AK at the top of the range (alongside overpairs like JJ, QQ, KK, AA and some bluffs), TT's decision depends on position, stack depth, and opponent range composition.
4-bet or flat in position (100 BB)
Against a single-raise 3-bet, TT can 4-bet to isolate and deny equity, or flat to realize equity post-flop with position. Both lines are viable. 4-betting is preferable against wide 3-bet ranges; flatting is better against tight ranges (AK/QQ+) where implied odds post-flop matter.
Facing a 4-bet with TT (roughly breakeven)
If the opponent 4-bets a range dominated by AK and overpairs (JJ+), TT is roughly breakeven or slightly -EV to call off 100 BB stacks. Against QQ+ and AK only, TT has about 35–40% equity — a fold is defensible. Against wider 4-bet ranges including AQ/KQ bluffs, calling improves.
Post-flop: proceed cautiously on A/K boards
If the flop contains an ace or king, TT must slow down against any continued aggression. A c-bet from a 3-bettor on an ace-high board represents AK or AA the majority of the time — check-folding TT on A-x-x or K-x-x flops is frequently correct against value-heavy ranges.
Play for stacks on safe boards
TT wants to get all-in on flops with no ace, king, or broadway card. A 9-5-2 or 7-4-2 board is ideal — TT is an overpair with ~80% equity and should build the pot aggressively. Use a large c-bet sizing (75–100% pot) to extract value and protect against running overcards.
TT vs AK Comparison: The Classic Coin Flip Debunked
The "coin flip" label for TT vs AK persists in poker culture, but the math consistently disproves it. A true 50/50 is 22 vs AKs (50.0% / 49.5%). TT vs AKo at 56.7% / 43.3% is a 13.4-point gap — meaningfully larger than a coin toss.
TT vs AK sits in the middle of the pair-vs-AK spectrum — meaningfully ahead, but not the dominant favorite that AA or KK represents. QQ and JJ flank TT with near-identical equity gaps, confirming that pocket tens behave like other medium-premium pairs against AK.
Definitions
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TT vs AK a coin flip?
No. TT wins 56.7% vs AKo — a genuine favorite. It is closer to a flip than premium pairs (QQ+ beats AK 57–81%), but it is not 50/50. The accurate term is 'race' or 'near-flip'; TT holds a consistent 55–57% edge depending on suit.
What is TT's equity vs AKo?
TT wins 56.7% against AKo. That means TT wins slightly more than 4 out of every 7 matchups. The remaining 43.3% goes to AK when it pairs an ace or king, makes a flush (AKs), or occasionally completes a straight.
Should I stack off preflop with TT vs AK?
In most cash game spots at 100 BB effective, yes — TT is a 56.7% favorite and the EV is positive against a range containing AK. As stacks deepen to 200 BB+, the edge narrows relative to risk, but against a range that includes AK, AQ, and smaller pairs, calling or 4-bet shoving TT is typically correct.
How does AKs compare to AKo vs TT?
AKs wins 45.4% vs TT, compared to AKo's 43.3% — about 2% more equity from flush draw potential. The difference matters over large samples but is not large enough to change preflop decision-making.
On what flops does AK overtake TT?
Any flop containing an ace or king reverses the equity dramatically. An ace flop gives AK ~75% equity; a king flop gives AK ~76%. Flops containing both an ace and a king are even worse for TT (~10% equity). Combined, ace- or king-high flops arrive on roughly 45% of all runouts.
What's the difference between TT vs AK and JJ vs AK?
Very similar matchups. JJ wins 55.2% vs AKo while TT wins 56.7% — TT is about 1.5% better. The reason is that TT has slightly fewer overcards to worry about on the board; an ace, king, queen, or jack all beat JJ as an overpair, while TT only loses to A, K, Q, J as an overpair. In practice, both are played nearly identically.
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