AK vs QQ Odds: Not a True Coin Flip
Last updated: May 15, 2026
AKo vs QQ is 43.3% / 56.2% — QQ wins 4 of every 7 hands. The popular description of AK vs QQ as a "coin flip" is wrong by 13 percentage points. AKs (suited) closes the gap to 46.1% / 53.4% thanks to backdoor and full flush draws, but QQ remains the favourite. The mathematics is fixed by the fact that QQ already holds a pair, while AK must improve.
The Numbers: QQ Is the Favourite
Two equity numbers matter. AKo (offsuit) vs QQ runs at 43.27% / 56.20% / 0.53%. AKs (suited) vs QQ runs at 46.07% / 53.43% / 0.50%. The 2.8% suit gain comes from flush draws — but it does not flip the matchup.
AKo vs QQ
43.3% / 56.2%
QQ favourite — not a coin flip
AKs vs QQ
46.1% / 53.4%
Closer — flush equity gain ~2.8%
Suit-by-Suit Equity Breakdown
When AK shares a suit with QQ, AK loses about 0.4% of equity because QQ blocks the flush. The maximum suit-swing is ~0.4 percentage points — far smaller than the suited-vs-offsuit swing of 2.8%.
Preflop equity by suit combination
Post-Flop: When Does the Equity Flip?
An ace or king on the flop swings AK from 43% to ~90%. A brick flop drops AK to ~25%. A coordinated board with straight potential narrows the gap because both hands have draw equity.
Equity given specific flops and runouts
Why Is QQ a 56% Favourite?
QQ is a made pair on every flop. AK must improve to win unless the board comes K-K-x or A-A-x with a Q-paired board. The math:
AK's equity sources (offsuit)
- Hit an ace by the river23.8%
- Hit a king by the river (no ace)16.9%
- Runner-runner straight beating QQ1.6%
- Two pair / better (excludes ace/king top pair)1.0%
- Total AKo equity43.3%
How to Play AK vs a QQ All-In
Few players ever face a pure "AK vs QQ" spot. In real games, the opponent's 5-bet range usually contains AA, KK, AK, and possibly QQ or AKs as a bluff. The decision is range-based, not hand-based.
Cash game vs balanced 5-bet range
Against {AA, KK, QQ, AKs} as a 5-bet shoving range, AK has approximately 38-42% equity — usually a call given the dead money already in the pot.
Vs a 'nits only' 5-bet range
Against {AA, KK only}, AK has just 31% equity vs AA and 30% vs KK. The dead money from antes and blinds rarely makes up the gap — folding can be correct.
Tournament short stack
Sub-20bb push/fold with AK is mandatory. AK shoves and calls light because tournament chip values reward survival aggression.
Live $1/$2 against an unknown
If a tight rec player 5-bets all-in, the range is often {AA, KK only}. Folding AK is sometimes correct. Note opponent history before stacking off.
AK Equity Against Every Pocket Pair
Definitions
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AK vs QQ really a coin flip?
No. AKo vs QQ is 43.3% / 56.2% — QQ is a 13-percentage-point favourite, meaning QQ wins 4 out of 7 times on average. AKs improves to 46.1% / 53.4% thanks to flush equity, but is still not 50/50. The term 'coin flip' in poker usually describes pocket-pair-vs-overcards matchups where the equity is closer to 53/47 (like 22 vs AK).
What are the exact odds of AK vs QQ?
AKo (offsuit) vs QQ: QQ wins 56.20%, AKo wins 43.27%, and ties happen 0.53% of the time. AKs (suited) vs QQ: QQ wins 53.43%, AKs wins 46.07%, ties 0.50%. The suited variant gains 2.8% from flush equity. These numbers come from full enumeration of all possible 5-card boards.
How many outs does AK have against QQ?
AK has 6 clean outs preflop — 3 remaining aces and 3 remaining kings. With 5 community cards to come, the probability of hitting at least one is about 41%. The remaining ~2% of AK's equity comes from runner-runner straights, flushes (suited only), and rare two-pair scenarios.
Should I always call all-in with AK vs QQ?
Depends on stack depth and stakes. In a cash game with 100bb stacks, calling all-in with AK against a range that includes QQ is usually correct because the range also contains AK (50/50), JJ-TT (53/47 favourite for AK), and bluffs. Against a tight player whose 4-bet/5-bet range is only {AA, KK, QQ}, AK has only 32% equity — folding is correct. The 43% number applies only to a pure AK vs QQ situation.
Why isn't AK vs QQ closer to 50/50?
QQ is already a made pair while AK needs to improve. AK's 6 overcard outs translate to about 41% equity over two streets — slightly less than the 50% needed for a true coin flip. The Rule of 4 & 2 estimate (6 × 8 = 48%) overestimates because hitting an ace or king doesn't guarantee the win — QQ can still hit a set or runner-runner improvement.
Is QQ vs AKs more of a coin flip?
Closer, but still not 50/50. AKs vs QQ is 46.1% / 53.4%. The suited variant adds approximately 2.8% from flush draws. Even at 46%, QQ wins about 11.5 times for every 10 times AK wins — a meaningful edge over thousands of hands.
What about AK vs JJ — is that a closer coin flip?
Yes. AKo vs JJ is 45.6% / 53.9%, and AKs vs JJ is 48.4% / 51.1%. AK gains equity against JJ because hitting an ace OR a king gives top pair (vs only an ace against QQ giving top pair). AKs vs JJ at 48.4% is one of the closest non-true-coin-flip matchups in poker.
Related Guides
Run AK vs QQ on any flop — see live equity
Try AKs vs QQ on Q-J-T or A-x-x boards. RiverOdds updates equity card-by-card.
Open RiverOdds Calculator →