Poker Win Rate: What Is bb/100 and What's a Good Number?
Last updated: May 12, 2026
Poker win rate is measured in big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100) — a good online cash game win rate is 5–10 bb/100, while a strong live poker win rate is 10–20 bb/100. The difference exists because live games are softer: players are less experienced, play more hands, and make larger strategic errors than online regulars.
A 5 bb/100 online win rate means you profit 5 big blinds for every 100 hands played — at $1/$2 online, that's $10 per 100 hands or approximately $20–25 per hour at a typical online pace. Win rate is the most important single metric for evaluating whether you are a long-term winning player, but it requires at least 50,000–100,000 hands to be statistically meaningful because variance can cause even skilled players to run below their true win rate for thousands of hands.
This guide explains the bb/100 formula, what win rates are achievable at each stake, how variance affects your observed win rate, and how to track it accurately.
What Is bb/100 and How Is It Calculated?
bb/100 stands for "big blinds per 100 hands" — it tells you how many big blinds you win or lose for every 100 hands you play. It's the universal unit for measuring poker performance because it's stake-independent: a 5 bb/100 win rate means the same thing at $0.25/$0.50 and at $10/$20.
bb/100 = (Total Profit in BB) ÷ (Total Hands Played) × 100
Example: You win $500 over 2,000 hands at $1/$2. First convert profit to big blinds: $500 ÷ $2 = 250 bb. Then apply the formula: 250 ÷ 2,000 × 100 = 12.5 bb/100.
bb vs BB — don't confuse them
In no-limit poker, bb (lowercase) = one big blind. In limit poker, BB (uppercase) = one big bet, which is twice the big blind. Win rates in no-limit are always expressed in lowercase bb/100. When reading old literature or limit-poker resources, check which unit is being used — a 2 BB/100 limit win rate equals 4 bb/100 in standard terms.
Tracking software like PokerTracker and Hold'em Manager calculates bb/100 automatically from your imported hand histories. For manual tracking, keep a spreadsheet with columns for date, stakes, hands played, and net profit in big blinds.
What Is a Good Poker Win Rate?
"Good" depends on format and competition level. The grid below shows bb/100 benchmarks across the main game types. MTTs use ROI (return on investment) instead of bb/100 because tournament structures make per-hand comparisons impractical.
Online 6-max NL
Online 9-max NL
Live NL Cash
MTT (ROI %)
Online win rates are lower than live win rates for structural reasons. Online player pools contain a higher proportion of regulars who study GTO, use tracking software, and make fewer fundamental errors. Rake also matters more online at lower stakes — the same 5 bb rake cap represents a larger percentage of a small pot than a large one.
Rakeback and VIP programs can add 1–3 bb/100 to your effective win rate online, which is why some players specifically choose sites with favorable rakeback structures before improving their technical game.
Why Variance Makes Win Rate Misleading Short-Term
The single biggest mistake players make is drawing conclusions from a small hand sample. Poker has a standard deviation of roughly 100 bb/100 — meaning your results in any given stretch can vary by 100 big blinds above or below your true win rate, purely from luck.
Even a player with a true win rate of 10 bb/100 can run at -500bb over 10,000 hands without making a single mistake. This isn't a bad beat — it's the expected distribution of results given poker's variance structure. The math confirms it: over 10,000 hands with a 100 bb/100 standard deviation, the 95% confidence interval spans roughly ±200bb, so observed results between -100bb and +300bb (relative to expected profit) are all statistically normal.
Confidence Interval Example
At 5 bb/100 true win rate with 100 bb/100 standard deviation, after 10,000 hands you could be anywhere from −95 to +195 bb/100 (95% confidence). This means apparent "results" in the range of −950bb to +1,950bb are all statistically plausible — making your observed win rate essentially unreliable at that sample size.
The practical implication: you need a minimum of 50,000 hands for a ±5 bb/100 margin of error, and 100,000 hands for ±3 bb/100 precision. Before that threshold, your win rate is a data point to watch — not a conclusion to act on.
The best antidote to variance-driven conclusions is process-based review: evaluate your decisions in a solver or with a coach, not your results in a session tracker.
How to Track Your Win Rate
Accurate tracking is the only way to know whether you are actually a winning player. Here is a step-by-step process:
Step 1: Record every session
Log the date, stakes (e.g. $0.50/$1 NL), format (6-max, 9-max, live), hands played, and net profit/loss converted to big blinds. Even one missing session corrupts your long-run data.
Step 2: Use tracking software
PokerTracker 4 and Hold'em Manager 3 are the industry standards for online play — import hand histories automatically after each session. For live poker, a simple spreadsheet with session data works well.
Step 3: Filter by format, stakes, and position
Your overall bb/100 hides leaks. Filter by position (are you losing from the blinds?), by street (do you lose money on the turn?), and by stake level. Disaggregated data reveals specific weaknesses.
Step 4: Separate red line and blue line
Blue line = showdown winnings. Red line = non-showdown winnings. A consistently declining red line means opponents are outbluffing you or you're not bluffing enough. A weak blue line means you're going to showdown with too many losing hands. Together, they diagnose whether your losses come from passivity or from thin value.
Minimum sample sizes
25,000 hands: enough to see the general direction (winning or losing) but not the magnitude. 50,000 hands: marginal confidence in win rate to within ±5 bb/100. 100,000 hands: the threshold most coaches consider reliable for evaluating true win rate with meaningful precision.
Win Rate vs Hourly Rate — Which Matters More?
Both metrics matter, but they answer different questions. bb/100 answers "how efficiently do I play?" — it's stake-independent and lets you compare performance across formats. Hourly rate answers "how much do I actually earn?" — it depends on stakes and pace.
Hourly Rate = (bb/100 ÷ 100) × BB Size × Hands Per Hour
Typical pace: online 6-max runs about 70 hands per hour, online 9-max about 60 hands per hour, and live cash games 25–30 hands per hour. Multi-tabling online multiplies your effective hands per hour by the number of tables.
Online Example
5 bb/100 at $0.50/$1 × 70 hands/hr
$3.50 / hour
Live Example
10 bb/100 at $2/$5 × 25 hands/hr
$25.00 / hour
Use bb/100 to identify leaks and compare skill levels. Use hourly rate when deciding which game, stake, or format to play for maximum financial return. A lower bb/100 at higher stakes often yields a better hourly rate than a high bb/100 at low stakes.
Definitions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good poker win rate?
A good poker win rate depends heavily on the format. For online 6-max NL cash games, a win rate of 5–10 bb/100 is considered excellent — most regulars fall between 2–5 bb/100, and anything above 10 bb/100 over a large sample is elite. For online 9-max, the benchmarks are slightly lower: 4–8 bb/100 is good, 8+ bb/100 is exceptional. For live NL cash games, the benchmarks are higher because fields are softer: 10–20 bb/100 is the range for strong, consistent winners, and 20+ bb/100 over a large sample is elite. Most losing players fall between -10 and -50 bb/100 — they lose between 10 and 50 big blinds per 100 hands over the long run. Breaking even (0 bb/100) after rake is already better than the majority of poker players. The most important context: these numbers only become meaningful after 50,000+ hands. Over shorter samples, almost any win rate is possible purely from variance.
How many hands do I need to calculate my win rate?
You need a minimum of 50,000 hands for any meaningful signal from your win rate, and 100,000+ hands for a reliable estimate. The reason is variance. In poker, the standard deviation of results is approximately 80–120 bb/100 per 100 hands, which means your observed results in any short sample can differ dramatically from your true underlying win rate. With 10,000 hands, the margin of error on your win rate estimate is approximately ±12 bb/100 at 95% confidence — meaning a player who is truly a 5 bb/100 winner could appear to be running anywhere from -7 to +17 bb/100 over that stretch. With 50,000 hands, the margin of error shrinks to roughly ±5 bb/100. With 100,000 hands, it narrows further to ±3 bb/100. This is why it's a mistake to draw firm conclusions from fewer than 25,000 hands and why many players severely underestimate or overestimate their ability based on short-run results.
What is the difference between bb/100 and hourly win rate?
bb/100 (big blinds per 100 hands) measures your win rate independent of stakes and pace — it's a pure measure of how efficiently you extract value per hand played. Hourly win rate measures how much money you make per hour and depends on three factors: your bb/100, the size of the big blind, and the number of hands dealt per hour. The conversion formula is: Hourly Rate = (bb/100 ÷ 100) × BB Size × Hands Per Hour. For example, a 5 bb/100 win rate at $0.50/$1 online with 70 hands per hour equals $0.05 × $1 × 70 = $3.50/hour. The same 5 bb/100 at $2/$5 live with 25 hands per hour equals $0.05 × $5 × 25 = $6.25/hour. bb/100 is the better metric for comparing skill level across formats; hourly rate is the better metric for evaluating the financial value of a specific game. Most serious players track both.
Why is my win rate negative even though I'm playing well?
If your win rate looks negative over a short sample, variance is the most likely explanation — not poor play. Poker has extremely high variance relative to other skill games. Even a player with a true win rate of 10 bb/100 can experience a downswing of -500 big blinds or more over 10,000 hands purely from statistical noise. This is completely normal and does not indicate a problem with your play. The second factor is rake: most poker rooms charge 4–6% of each pot up to a cap, which can cost 4–8 bb/100 in rake alone at micro and low stakes. A player who is a marginal winner before rake might be a slight loser after. To distinguish real losses from statistical noise, review your decisions in a hand history tool rather than judging by results. If you are making fundamentally sound decisions, the results will normalize over a sufficient sample. Downswings lasting 10,000–20,000 hands are statistically common for winning players.
How do live and online win rates compare?
Live poker win rates are generally higher in bb/100 terms than online win rates, for two main reasons: field quality and game speed. Live games, particularly at mid-stakes (1/2, 2/5), are populated by recreational players who play far more loosely and passively than online regulars. They play too many hands, call too often, and rarely apply pressure at the right moments — all errors that a competent player can exploit for a high bb/100. Most strong, consistent live players run 10–25 bb/100 over large samples. Online games at equivalent stakes are considerably tougher because regulars are better-educated, use solvers, and the player pool is more aggressive. However, live poker's slow pace (25–30 hands/hour versus 60–70 hands/hour online) means a high bb/100 in live poker often translates to a comparable or lower hourly rate than online. A 15 bb/100 player at $1/$2 live earns about $9/hour; a 5 bb/100 player at $0.50/$1 online earns roughly $3.50/hour — but volume online can be multiplied by multi-tabling.
Does win rate include rake?
Yes — all standard win rate tracking records your net profit after rake is already deducted. When you book a session result or export hand histories from tracking software like PokerTracker or Hold'em Manager, the rake has already been taken from each pot before your winnings are recorded. Your displayed bb/100 is your true net win rate. Gross win rate (before rake) would typically be 2–5 bb/100 higher at most stakes. This distinction matters because rakeback programs — where the poker site returns a percentage of rake paid — can meaningfully improve your net results. A player running at 1–2 bb/100 net who receives 30% rakeback might effectively be running at 3–4 bb/100 once rakeback is added back. At micro stakes, rake represents a larger percentage of the pot and is the primary reason many technically decent micro-stakes players struggle to show a net profit — the rake can be as high as 10–15% of small pots, creating a steep hurdle.
Related Topics
Calculate your hand equity and pot odds — build a winning foundation
Enter your hole cards and community cards — RiverOdds calculates your precise equity instantly.
Open RiverOdds Calculator →