AA vs QQ Odds
Last updated: May 23, 2026
Pocket Aces (AA) wins 80.4% of the time against Pocket Queens (QQ) preflop. QQ wins 19.6% (mainly by flopping a queen or hitting a runner-runner straight or flush), and the two hands tie about 0.5%. AA is a 4.1-to-1 favorite — slightly less dominant than AA vs KK (82.4%) because QQ picks up extra backdoor straight equity. This is the classic dominated-pair cooler and one of the matchups players misjudge most often when deciding whether to fold QQ to a 4-bet shove.
The Exact Number: 80.4% vs 19.6%
Across the 1,712,304 possible 5-card board runouts that follow an AA vs QQ preflop all-in, AA wins approximately 1,376,690 of them, QQ wins 327,750, and 7,864 produce a chopped pot. The percentages — 80.40% / 19.14% / 0.46% — are derived analytically from full enumeration, not Monte Carlo approximation.
AA Wins
80.4%
QQ Wins
19.6%
Tie
0.5%
Ties happen when the board produces a higher hand than either pocket pair — for example, a straight on the board (T-J-K-A or similar) or four of a kind on the board. Vanishingly rare, but real.
Does the Suit Matter?
The suits of AA and QQ shift the matchup by at most 0.3 percentage points. AA gains a hair when it shares both suits with QQ (blocking flush combinations), and the matchup is at its narrowest when the hands share no suits at all. In practice, the suit breakdown is negligible — far less impactful than the board texture that comes next.
Preflop equity by suit combination
Post-Flop: When the Equity Flips
The equity picture transforms the instant the flop arrives. A flop that misses both hands pushes AA to roughly 90% to win. A queen on the flop is the only realistic way QQ takes over — and when it lands, QQ becomes a 94% favorite. The two cards that decide nearly every AA vs QQ pot are the Q (QQ's set card) and the A (AA's set card).
Equity given specific flops and runouts
Why Is AA a 4.1-to-1 Favorite?
QQ has only 2 outs to improve to a set — the two remaining queens in a 50-card deck. With 5 community cards to come, the probability of at least one queen appearing is about 16.5%. The remaining 3.1% of QQ's equity comes from backdoor straights, backdoor flushes, and rare runner-runner two pair scenarios that beat AA.
QQ's equity sources
- Flop a queen (and AA doesn't improve)11.5%
- Turn/river a queen (and AA doesn't improve)5.0%
- Backdoor straight beating AA2.4%
- Backdoor flush (when AA blocks)0.7%
- Total QQ equity19.6%
How to Play AA vs QQ All-In Decisions
AA should never be folded preflop in any common stack scenario — the 4.1-to-1 edge is too large to surrender. QQ is the more interesting decision. Against a balanced 4-bet shove range, QQ remains a profitable call. Against a tight range of only AA and KK, folding QQ is mathematically correct.
Cash game — get QQ in vs any balanced 4-bet range
Against a balanced 4-bet/5-bet range that includes A5s and KQs bluffs, QQ has 50%+ equity. Folding QQ preflop in cash is almost never correct unless the opponent's range is provably {AA, KK} only.
Tournament — QQ stacks off 90% of the time
Stack off with QQ at typical MTT depths. Re-evaluate only on the bubble vs a tight player whose 4-bet range excludes AKs and KQs bluffs. 2024+ solver work shows QQ shove is profitable at 100bb when ranges are balanced.
AA vs maniac 4-bet — always go
AA never folds. Against a maniac whose 4-bet range is {AA, KK, QQ, AKs, 76s, A5s}, AA still wins 70%+ — there is no scenario where folding AA preflop is correct.
How AA vs QQ Compares to Other Premium Matchups
Definitions
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the exact odds of AA vs QQ preflop?
AA wins 80.4% of the time, QQ wins 19.6%, and the hands tie about 0.5%. The number comes from full enumeration of all 1,712,304 possible 5-card boards. AA is a 4.1-to-1 favorite. The 80/20 split is one of the most reliable equity matchups in Hold'em and does not vary with stack depth, position, or betting action.
Does the suit matter in AA vs QQ?
Barely. The maximum suit-effect swing is about 0.3 percentage points. When AA shares both suits with QQ (e.g. A♠A♥ vs Q♠Q♥), AA wins 80.6% because AA blocks QQ's flush suits. When the hands share no suits at all, AA wins 80.3%. Either way, you are inside the 80.3–80.6% band — far smaller than most players assume.
How often does AA face QQ at the same table?
The probability of being dealt AA is 1 in 221 (0.45%) and the same for QQ. The probability of two specific opponents holding AA and QQ simultaneously is approximately 1 in 49,000 hands. In a 9-handed game, the chance that AA meets QQ at the table is roughly 1 in 5,400 hands — rare per session, inevitable across a career. The matchup is far more common in $5K+ tournaments where premiums get four-bet faster.
Should I ever fold QQ preflop against an all-in?
Usually no, but the exception is real. QQ is a 4.1-to-1 underdog only against AA and KK combined. Against a tight 4-bet/5-bet range of {AA, KK, AKs}, QQ has roughly 41% equity — still a profitable shove for stack-off math. Against a maniac whose 4-bet range only contains AA and KK (no bluffs), QQ has 18.5% equity and folding can be correct. Solver work in 2024+ shows QQ remains a profitable shove at 100bb when the opponent's 4-bet range is balanced.
How many outs does QQ have against AA?
QQ has 2 outs preflop — the two remaining queens. With 5 community cards to come, this gives QQ approximately 19.6% equity. The math is slightly higher than AA vs KK's 17.1% because QQ also captures more backdoor straight equity (queens reach more straight combinations than kings do). The Rule of 4 & 2 estimate (2 × 8 = 16%) underestimates the actual figure.
How does AA vs QQ compare to AA vs KK and AA vs JJ?
Equity drops as the underpair gets smaller because backdoor straight and flush combinations grow more numerous. AA vs KK is 82.4% / 17.1%, AA vs QQ is 80.4% / 19.6%, AA vs JJ is 81.0% / 18.5%, and AA vs TT is 80.8% / 18.7%. JJ slightly outperforms QQ because of clean straight outs that don't run into AA's kickers — but the swings are all inside ~2 points.
Has anyone calculated AA vs QQ without simulation?
Yes. AA vs QQ is computed by enumerating all C(48,5) = 1,712,304 board runouts. AA wins approximately 1,376,690 of them, QQ wins 327,750, and 7,864 produce a chopped pot. Dividing gives 80.40% / 19.14% / 0.46%. As with AA vs KK, no Monte Carlo simulation is required.
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