AA vs JJ Odds

Last updated: May 23, 2026

Pocket Aces (AA) wins 81.0% of the time against Pocket Jacks (JJ) preflop. JJ wins 19.0% — mostly by flopping a set or running into a backdoor straight or flush — and the two hands tie 0.5%. AA is a 4.26-to-1 favorite, narrower than the 4.81-to-1 edge AA holds over KK because JJ has slightly more live straight outs across coordinated boards.

The Exact Number: 81.0% vs 19.0%

Across all 1,712,304 possible 5-card board runouts that follow an AA vs JJ preflop all-in, AA wins roughly 81.0% of them, JJ wins 19.0%, and ~0.5% chop. The percentages come from analytic enumeration, not Monte Carlo approximation. JJ's 19% equity is meaningful — across 1,000 such matchups, JJ wins about 190 of them.

AA Wins

81.0%

JJ Wins

19.0%

Tie

0.5%

Does the Suit Matter?

Barely. AA vs JJ shifts at most 0.3 percentage points across the four canonical suit cases. The widest edge for AA appears when AA shares both suits with JJ (blocking JJ's flush potential). The narrowest edge occurs when the two hands share no suits — but the difference is small enough to be ignored at the table.

Preflop equity by suit combination

ScenarioAA WinsJJ WinsTieDetail
A♠A♥
vs J♣J♦		80.9%18.6%0.5%No suit overlap — JJ keeps full flush-draw potential on any monotone runout
A♠A♥
vs J♠J♥		81.2%18.3%0.5%AA blocks both JJ suits — JJ loses flush equity on hearts and spades boards
A♠A♦
vs J♠J♣		81.0%18.5%0.5%AA blocks one of JJ's suits (spades) — slight further edge
A♥A♦
vs J♠J♣		80.9%18.6%0.5%Identical to no-overlap case — neither hand shares a suit

Post-Flop: When Does the Equity Flip?

Equity swings dramatically once the flop comes. A jack-free, uncoordinated flop keeps AA around 90-92% to win. A jack on the flop is the headline disaster — JJ becomes a 92-95% favorite. Coordinated boards like Q-T-9 actually flip equity in JJ's favor thanks to open-ended straight draws plus 2 set outs.

Equity given specific flops and runouts

ScenarioAA WinsJJ WinsTieDetail
AA (no J on flop)
vs JJ		90.5%9.5%0%Flop like Q-7-3 rainbow — JJ has 2 outs twice plus thin runner-runner equity
AA (J on flop)
vs JJ (set)		7.2%92.8%0%JJ flops a set — AA needs runner-runner ace or higher straight to win
AA on Q-T-9 flop
vs JJ (open-ender)		44.5%55.5%0%JJ flops an 8-out straight draw plus 2 jacks — overtakes AA in raw equity
AA on J-J-x flop
vs JJ (quads)		0%100%0%Drawing dead — flopped quads cannot be beaten
AA (no J by turn)
vs JJ		95.5%4.5%0%Turn arrives without a jack — JJ now has 2 river outs (~4.5%)

Why Is AA a 4.26-to-1 Favorite?

JJ has 2 outs to improve to a set — the two remaining jacks. With 5 board cards to come, a jack lands about 16.5% of the time. The remaining ~2.5% of JJ's equity comes from runner-runner straights and flushes that beat AA without JJ ever making a set.

JJ's equity sources

  • Flop a jack (and AA doesn't improve)11.8%
  • Turn/river a jack (and AA doesn't improve)4.7%
  • Runner-runner straight beating AA1.8%
  • Runner-runner flush (when AA doesn't block)0.7%
  • Total JJ equity19.0%

How AA Compares to Other Premium Matchups

MatchupAA WinsUnderdog WinsNotes
AA vs KK82.4%17.1%Tightest underdog — KK has only flush + set outs
AA vs QQ81.7%17.8%QQ gains slightly more straight equity than KK
AA vs JJ81.0%19.0%JJ adds more live straight outs to the mix
AA vs TT80.8%18.7%Similar to JJ — wheel straight outs cancel out blocker losses
AA vs 2280.8%19.0%Smallest pair — straight equity peaks but no overcards
AA vs AKo87.4%12.6%AK is dominated — only one ace and 3 kings live

How to Play JJ vs a Possible AA

JJ is the trickiest premium pair to play. It dominates 99, TT, AQ, KQ — but is crushed by AA, KK, QQ. The standard line depends on stack depth and 3-bet/4-bet range tightness:

100bb cash — 4-bet/fold or flat in position

Against a tight UTG 3-bet range (AA, KK, QQ, AKs), JJ has roughly 30% equity — a 4-bet/call line is losing. Flatting in position lets JJ realize equity on jack-free boards and fold cheaply when an overcard arrives.

Tournament <50bb — shove or fold

Below 50bb effective, JJ becomes a shove-or-fold hand against opens. Fold equity from a 3-bet shove plus equity when called makes shoving usually +cEV — but against the tightest 4-bet ranges, expect to be a 5-to-1 underdog when called.

Live $1/$2 cash 4-bet pot

In low-stakes live, many recreational players 4-bet only AA and KK. Folding JJ to a 4-bet from a tight live regular is often correct — your equity vs that range can drop below 25%.

Definitions

Premium Pair
AA, KK, QQ, and JJ form the four premium pocket pairs. JJ is the smallest premium — it dominates all lower pairs but is dominated by AA, KK, and QQ. JJ has 19.0% equity vs AA all-in preflop.
Set Mining
Calling preflop with a pocket pair planning to fold unless you flop a set. JJ flops a set ~11.8% of the time. Against AA's preflop bet, set mining JJ requires 7.5-to-1 implied odds to be profitable.
4-Bet
The fourth voluntary raise preflop. Against a tight UTG 3-bet range, JJ is often a 4-bet/fold candidate at 100bb depths — flatting plays better given JJ's poor equity vs the top of the 3-betting range.
Cooler
A hand where both players hold strong holdings and one is destined to lose a large pot. AA vs JJ at 100bb depths frequently becomes a cooler — JJ is too strong to fold preflop, and once a jack-free flop is checked back, the hand often stacks off post-flop.
Runner-Runner
Hitting two consecutive cards on the turn and river to complete a draw. JJ relies on backdoor straights and flushes for the last ~2.7% of its equity against AA when it does not flop a set.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the exact odds of AA vs JJ preflop?

AA wins approximately 81.0% of the time, JJ wins 19.0%, and the hands tie about 0.5%. The exact figure varies by 0.3% depending on the suits dealt, but the 81/19 split is the canonical heads-up all-in number. It comes from full enumeration of all 1,712,304 possible 5-card board runouts.

Why is AA vs JJ closer than AA vs KK?

AA vs JJ is 81.0% vs 19.0%, while AA vs KK is 82.4% vs 17.1%. The reason: JJ has slightly more live straight outs. KK can only complete a straight on boards containing A-Q-J-T (and AA blocks one of those aces). JJ has more usable straight runouts — T-9-8, Q-T-9, K-Q-T type boards all give JJ live straight equity that KK does not have against AA.

How does JJ win against AA?

JJ wins primarily by flopping a set — the 2 remaining jacks in the deck give JJ about an 11.8% chance to flop a set, plus another ~4.5% to turn or river one. The remaining equity (around 2.7%) comes from runner-runner straights and flushes. Once JJ flops a set against AA, JJ becomes a 92.8% favorite to win the hand.

Should I 4-bet shove JJ against a tight 3-bettor?

Usually no — in cash games at standard 100bb depths, 4-bet shoving JJ into a tight UTG 3-bet range (which often contains AA, KK, QQ, AKs) is break-even or losing. Solvers prefer flatting JJ in position or 4-bet/folding off-position with a small sizing. At under 50bb in tournaments, JJ becomes a shove-or-fold spot — usually a shove given fold equity.

What's the most famous AA vs JJ hand in poker history?

The 2014 EPT Barcelona hand between Daniel Negreanu and Ole Schemion is widely cited — Negreanu's AA was cracked by Schemion's JJ when a jack landed on the turn, eliminating Negreanu from the high roller event. The hand is replayed often as a textbook example of how 19% equity becomes reality in tournament poker — JJ wins this matchup roughly 1 in 5 times.

Related Guides

AA vs QQ OddsAA vs KK OddsPocket Jacks OddsAll Hand MatchupsPoker Glossary

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