TT vs 44 Odds: Pocket Tens vs Pocket Fours
Last updated: May 27, 2026
Pocket Tens (TT) wins 82.1% of the time against Pocket Fours (44) preflop. 44 wins 16.2% with ties at 1.7%. This is among the cleanest domination matchups in pair-vs-pair poker — 44 has almost no secondary straight draw equity, leaving its winning path nearly exclusively reliant on flopping a set. Four-high boards are extremely rare, 44's implied odds calculation requires deep stacks and a passive TT, and 44's equity profile is essentially identical to 33 and 22 — all three bottom pairs share the same pure set-mining equity structure against TT.
The Exact Number: 82.1% vs 16.2%
TT's 65.9-point advantage over 44 reflects the progressive equity gain that occurs as the lower pair moves further from TT. From TT vs 99 (81.5%) through TT vs 55 (82.0%) to TT vs 44 (82.1%), TT gains approximately 0.1 points per step as secondary straight draw equity decreases. The 1.7% tie rate is consistent with other low-pair matchups.
TT Wins
82.1%
44 Wins
16.2%
Tie
1.7%
44's 16.2% equity is almost entirely set-driven. Set equity (11.8% × ~88.4% = ~10.4%) accounts for the vast majority. The remaining ~5.8% comes from rare low straight draws, runner-runner scenarios, and miscellaneous board ties. This is the narrowest equity concentration of any pair that can realistically set-mine against TT.
Does the Suit Matter?
Suit combinations shift TT vs 44 equity by about 0.4 percentage points. Since 44's primary equity driver (set outs) is entirely suit-independent, the variation comes only from marginal flush draw possibilities when 44 shares a suit with one of TT's cards. The 1.7% tie rate remains constant across all suit configurations.
Preflop equity by suit combination
Post-Flop: When 44 Threatens TT
Post-flop in TT vs 44, the story is even simpler than most pair matchups. A four on the flop creates a catastrophic situation for TT; a ten ends the hand for 44; and only the rare A-2-3 wheel-draw board gives 44 any secondary equity. By the turn without a four, 44 is down to less than 7% equity.
Equity given specific flops and runouts
Why 44, 33, and 22 Are Practically Equivalent vs TT
One of poker's most instructive patterns: TT vs 44 (82.1%), TT vs 33 (82.2%), and TT vs 22 (82.3%) differ by just 0.1 percentage points each. This is not a coincidence — it reflects the mathematical reality that all three pairs share the same equity structure:
44 equity sources vs TT
- Flop a set of fours (11.8%) × win from there (88.4%)~10.4%
- Wheel-draw boards (A-2-3) — gutshot equity for 44~1.8%
- Runner-runner quads or full houses~0.9%
- Board-play ties and miscellaneous runouts~3.1%
- Total 44 equity16.2%
The same structure applies to 33 (16.1%) and 22 (16.0%) — each fractionally lower due to slightly reduced secondary draw coverage. For practical purposes, holding 44, 33, or 22 against a TT raise is strategically identical: set-mine or fold, with the decision determined purely by pot odds, implied odds, stack depth, and opponent tendencies — not by the specific rank of your pair.
The Definitive Pair-vs-Pair Matchup Reference Table
Every pocket pair domination matchup in one place. These numbers represent the standard baseline (no suit overlap). Use this table to understand where any pair-vs-pair all-in situation falls in the equity spectrum.
Note the tight clustering of TT vs 44, TT vs 33, and TT vs 22 (82.1%, 82.2%, 82.3%). This confirms the practical equivalence of all bottom pocket pairs when set-mining against TT: the 0.1-point difference between them is strategically irrelevant — the set-mining decision is identical for all three.
Definitions
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the exact TT vs 44 preflop odds?
Pocket Tens (TT) win 82.1% of the time against Pocket Fours (44) preflop. 44 wins 16.2% and ties account for 1.7%. This is a domination matchup — TT holds two cards that rank well above 44's pair, and 44 has only two remaining fours as realistic winning outs. 44 flops a set approximately 11.8% of the time; when that set lands, 44 wins approximately 88.4% of the time from that point. The 1.7% tie rate is stable because both pairs can contribute to low-end straights on rare board textures, though fours appear in even fewer common board combinations than fives or sixes.
Why does 44 have the narrowest winning path against TT?
44's winning path against TT is almost exclusively set-mining, with almost no secondary straight draw equity on realistic board textures. Unlike 99 (which has 7-8-9-T connected boards), 88 (which has 6-7-8-9-T boards), or even 55 (which has wheel boards), 44's straight combinations are limited to A-2-3-4-5 (wheel), 2-3-4-5-6, 3-4-5-6-7, 4-5-6-7-8, and 5-6-7-8-9. The issue is that four-high boards — textures featuring a four prominently — are the rarest category. Even when 44 gains a gutshot on an A-2-3 flop, TT still holds an overpair. Beyond the set, 44 has essentially no equity path against TT.
How similar are 44, 33, and 22 vs TT in equity terms?
Very similar. TT vs 44 (TT wins 82.1%), TT vs 33 (TT wins 82.2%), and TT vs 22 (TT wins 82.3%) are within 0.2 percentage points of each other. All three matchups share the same fundamental equity structure: the lower pair has only set outs as a primary winning mechanism, and the secondary straight draw equity for 44, 33, and 22 is negligible because boards featuring fours, threes, or deuces prominently are extremely rare. This is why professional players treat set-mining logic essentially identically for any pair below 55 when facing a raise — the pot odds and implied odds calculation is the same regardless of whether you hold 44, 33, or 22.
How do deep stacks and a passive TT affect 44's implied odds?
44's profitability against TT is highly dependent on two conditions: deep effective stacks and a passive TT. Deep stacks matter because 44's only winning path — flopping a set — must extract enough additional chips to compensate for the 88.2% of flops where 44 misses and folds. Standard set-mining math requires roughly 7:1 implied odds; at 100BB stacks with a 3BB raise, the math barely works. At 200BB stacks, implied odds become much stronger. A passive TT — one that calls and checks rather than betting aggressively — maximises the chips that go in post-flop after 44 hits its set. Aggressive TT players who bet 3 streets on low boards are better at extracting value even against missed sets.
What should TT do on a 4-high board post-flop?
On 4-x-x boards where TT holds no ten, TT has a powerful overpair and should bet aggressively for value. However, if a tight, stack-conscious opponent check-raises on a 4-high board, this is almost always a set. Four-high boards are so dry and unfavourable for bluffs that a check-raise on 4-x-x represents a very polarised range — almost exclusively a set or a very passive player's two pair. Against aggressive recreational players, you can call the check-raise since they may over-value top pair or floated earlier streets. Against competent tight opponents, folding to a big check-raise on 4-x-x boards is correct even with an overpair.
What is the set-over-set scenario for TT vs 44?
On T-4-x flops, both TT and 44 have flopped three-of-a-kind simultaneously — the classic cooler. TT has top set (three tens) and 44 has bottom set (three fours). TT wins 86.3% from this point. 44 can only win by making four fours (quads) or a full house of fours-over-tens that beats TT's full house of tens-over-fours. Both players will typically go all-in on T-4-x — neither hand can reasonably fold a set — and TT is the 86.3% favourite. T-4-x set-over-set is rarer than T-9-x (TT vs 99) simply because four-high boards appear less frequently in general play.
How does TT vs 44 fit into the full pair-vs-pair equity spectrum?
TT vs 44 (TT wins 82.1%) sits in the upper range of pair domination matchups, just above TT vs 55 (82.0%) and just below TT vs 33 (82.2%). The consistent 0.1-point increase as pairs move lower (TT vs 99 = 81.5%, TT vs 88 = 81.7%, TT vs 77 = 81.8%, TT vs 66 = 81.9%, TT vs 55 = 82.0%, TT vs 44 = 82.1%) reflects progressive loss of secondary straight draw equity. For practical purposes, 44, 33, and 22 vs TT are essentially equivalent in equity and strategy — all three are pure set-mine situations. The full reference table is below.
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